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By Brendan Brown (auth.)

ISBN-10: 1349061034

ISBN-13: 9781349061037

ISBN-10: 1349061050

ISBN-13: 9781349061051

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For some, an international banking crisis would be a good state of the world. In the example of an LDC rescheduling or defaulting, many of its citizens would gain from an alleviation of taxes to service foreign debts outstanding to the international banks. However, it should be expected that income contingent on a banking crisis should be relatively expensive in the market for state-claims. For although the gains of the defaulter and losses of the creditor would cancel each other out, there would be many potential third-party victims of a banking crisis.

He would go into the market place and buy income contingent on war-boom-banking crisis in exchange for either present consumption or income contingent on other combinations. In practice, the number of state-variables, and the values (forms) each can take, are immense. No individual could map out every conceivable reality (combination of states), and securities in the form of elementary combination-prospects are rarely found. But the individual is aware of how changes in the value of certain crucial state-variables may affect qualitatively his future income, irrespective of how other state-variables change simultaneously.

Friedman, A Monetary History of the United States (Princeton University Press, 1963) Chapter 4. In the same work, Chapter 7, details can be found of the extended bank holiday of 1933. 31. See C. P. Kindleberger, Manias, Panics and Crashes (Macmillan, 1978) Chapter 10. 32. In practice, the South African white, by buying gold (albeit illicitly) obtains some insurance against the state of exile; for revolution in South Africa would send the price of gold shooting upwards. This is analogous to the OPEC wealthy investor buying energy hedges, for example the petro-pound.

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A Theory of Hedge Investment by Brendan Brown (auth.)

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